What's In Store for the 2016 Housing Market?

While the constant headlines of home foreclosure numbers are now a distant memory, the housing market has still not quite returned to its pre-recession strength. New home starts spent this past spring idling in hope that millennials would soon dive full force into home ownership. But a lot of the millennials opted to continue renting and pay down some debt. The federal government enacted numerous rules and laws aimed at protecting home buyers from predatory lending. And mortgage rates remained at historic lows. One positive that has come from the housing market collapse is that more home buyers are aware of the importance of title insurance. This came from the large number of bank-owned (REO) properties that had to be reabsorbed into the market before any substantive market growth could begin. But, what do industry analysts anticipate for 2016?

Many consumers remain pessimistic

Trulia commissioned Harris Poll to survey Americans about their view of the current and future housing market. Business Insider reported the results. Their research found that 80 percent of people in the important millennial demographic hope to someday own their own home. They found that 75 percent of people in all age brackets still hold onto the American dream of home ownership. About 22 percent of respondents believe it will be more difficult to obtain a home loan in 2016 than it was in the preceding years, due primarily to rising interest rates. Thirty-one percent of those millennials say they do plan to purchase a home by 2018. Their job status and how much money they have saved for a down payment will determine whether they pursue that goal in 2016 or later.

Fannie Mae and FHA try to make obtaining a loan easier

In addition to more buyers understanding the importance of title insurance, home buyers are more cautious about getting a home loan. In an effort to draw some of the qualified buyers who are still sitting on the sidelines into the market, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) lowered premiums on mortgage insurance below the traditional 0.85 percent to 1.35 percent. That is enough to save home buyers about $900 each year on their mortgage insurance. Additionally, Fannie Mae is also trying to make the path to home ownership smoother for buyers. Buyers qualified in other ways can get a home with as little as 3 percent down.

Another effort to make buying easier is the HomeReady mortgage program. HomeReady takes into consideration the income of other people living in the home, without these people being listed as a borrower on the mortgage. This means if a person represents at least 30 percent of the household income, their earnings can count toward the loan qualification. This program can also be used to include persons not living under the roof, like the parents of millennials who are willing to help their children with some monetary assistance.

Boomerang buyers may be coming back into market

While the first-time buyers get the most attention, it is the boomerang buyers who are likely to determine the overall strength of the 2016 housing market. The Northwestern University Institute for Policy Research estimates that  approximately seven million people across the United States lost their home to foreclosure during the recession. While the lenders may be reluctant to lend money to anyone who has a foreclosure in their past, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says almost one million of those people who lost a home previously are looking to buy again. The housing market will never fully recover until this demographic is once again allowed to borrow money to get their American dream back.


It is important that all home buyers be more prudent with their purchase decision. This includes being sure they can comfortably afford their mortgage. They should also have a thorough home inspection, and purchase title insurance for their own protection, in addition to the title insurance that protects the lender.

The Importance of a Proper List Price

Who makes the decision about list price and sales price? The home's owner.

Who suffers when the list price is too high? Everybody: the seller, their agent, the buyer's agent, the buyers. An improper list price can cause problems at every point of the transaction. Even when (if) buyers and sellers reach an agreement on price, an appraisal for less than the contract price creates headaches for everyone. One of the most difficult and often unpleasant responsibilities for listing agents is having an honest and direct discussion about the market value of the seller's home.

Sellers must understand market value
Market value is often less than the seller's perceived value of their home. Spending thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours on a water feature in the backyard does not necessarily increase the home's value by the amount invested. It can increase the home's appeal, but not always the value. Market value is different than the assessed value for taxes.
The National Tax Payers Union (NTU) reports that about 60 percent of all properties in the United States are assessed at an amount above their current market value.
Market value is determined by homes that have sold recently in the area. How far the home is from things like schools, shopping, medical services, and work centers also factor in. The impact of future construction projects and road development should also be considered. The local economy is perhaps the most influential factor in a home's market value. Despite the recent housing market crash, it is still difficult for many home owners to accept that real estate values do not always go up year-after-year.

Home value estimators
There are several online Home Value Estimators. While technology has improved the lives of Realtors in many ways, these automatic home value estimators often make their jobs more difficult. Without actually naming any of the available online options, some are better than others, but there is a huge error rate with all of them. For individual sellers, the disparities between these computer generated estimates and an informed opinion of value from a knowledgeable agent are often significant.
When agents discuss market value with their clients, they must learn to incorporate the tax assessed value and estimate from online estimators into the discussion. They can encourage the sellers to view these things as a starting point and to use all available information together for making an informed decision about their listing price.

Why listing price is important
A larger pool of potential buyers: Most interest and activity takes place in the first few weeks a home is listed in the MLS. To maximize the exposure to ready, willing, and able buyers, it is crucial that the price is not too high. Even in a seller's market, qualified buyers should be viewed a valuable. A high list price can instantly scare away potential buyers and result in the home remaining on the market longer than it should.
The price directly impacts days on market: There is no need to add wording like "bring all offers" and "highly motivated seller" when the list price of a home is competitive. Buyers often have spent several weeks or months comparing homes and prices in the area. They know how much house they can get for the same price elsewhere. When a home has an unreasonably high list price, contract negotiations typically take longer and are more contentious. This leads to a reluctance by both parties in working together for a successful closing.
Some sellers are not going to get the sales price they hoped to achieve. As a result, they often resent every penny that is deducted from the sales price (namely the real estate agent's commission) and lowers their net proceeds. When they are prepared well in advance of the negotiations and closing, they have time to understand and accept that reality. They make the decision. A tactful and honest Realtor will go over a reasonable estimate of market value prior to listing the home. Otherwise, the seller can feel misled, trapped, and forced into a situation they do not like.